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NFL Crystal Ball: McNair Legacy will not include Hall of Fame Induction

Although details of Steve McNair's homicide are still forthcoming, the big question around the media surrounding his death has to do with his legacy. People want to speculate on how history will judge the former NFL Quarterback. He will be remembered as a pro bowler, a great teammate, a community stalwart, and a guy who gave his life in one of the more bizarre murder cases ever surrounding a professional athlete.

He will be remembered for all these things separately, and probably not as one thing universally. Surely, different people around him were affected differently by his actions, and I think we can all agree that the world was a better place when Steve McNair was still with us.

Ultimately though, he's going to be famous for one thing above all: his performance as an NFL quarterback. The question in this column: should Steve McNair be considered for the Hall of Fame, and more specifically, should the events of this July 4th have an effect on the voting process.

I know I'll be in the minority when I say this, but Steve McNair's hall of fame candidacy is likely to be improved by the tragedy and surprise events leading to his death, and more than that, I think it should improve his chances of making the hall of fame.

But, I just don't think the total package is going to be enough to get him there. I'm going to add some analysis to back up this point, so if you feel that it's too early to talk about his hall of fame credentials given the circumstances, I implore this to be the final sentence you read in this column.

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Steve McNair's prime lasted from 2000-2003. Other top quarterbacks of his era include:

Rich Gannon (prime years 1999-2002)
Kurt Warner (prime years 1999-2001)
Trent Green (prime years 2002-2005)
Daunte Culpepper (prime years 2000-2004)
Kerry Collins (prime years 2000-2002)

The consistently high standards of the hall of fame suggest that only one of those players is "likely" to get in one day, and that's Warner. Warner's numbers from the Rams days are ridiculously cartoonish, and when McNair and Warner faced off in the super bowl, it was Warner who came out on top. Warner is 1-2 in Super Bowls in his career, and both of his losses came to guys whose prime years fell in the following era (post 2004 illegal contact rule changes), the two guys who beat him are going to have strong cases when they become eligible.

If Steve McNair is to be considered a hall of fame performer, we need solid evidence that he was as good if not better than the Gannons, Greens, and Culpeppers of the world.

Number One Receivers

McNair's prime years were also the four best years of Derrick Mason's career. Mason has a legitimate shot at the hall of fame, as he's been maybe the 5th or 6th best receiver of this decade (after Moss, Owens, Holt, and Harrison).

Gannon threw to Tim Brown and Jerry Rice, two hall of famers who were not anywhere near the primes of their career when he played with them.

Green had Tony Gonzalez as his number one receiver, but never a true threat on the outside.

Culpepper threw to Moss back when he was [Randy Moss!]

In order of individual achievement, you'd rank them Gannon, then Green, then McNair, then Culpepper.

Team Achievement in Prime

Rich Gannon went 41-23 in the regular season in his prime years, and then 4-3 in the playoffs with one AFC Title (in which he beat McNair's Titans)

Trent Green went 38-26 in the regular season in his prime years, and then lost his only playoff game. Green started a second playoff game in 2006, after he missed most of the year injured, which he lost (to Manning's Colts in both games).

Both Gannon and Green were hamstrung by lousy defenses, although Green moreso than Gannon.

Culpepper's Vikings went 36-37 with him at the helm, thanks in part to a lousy defense, but they made the playoffs twice and Culpepper was 2-2 with two excellent playoff performances.

McNair actually had the benefit of a great defense, and compiled a 40-20 regular season record during the prime of his career. In those four years, he won only 2 of 5 playoff starts (2-3), losing his only AFC Title game appearence in 2002. McNair's super bowl run came a year before his prime, but should not be forgotten in this analysis. He won all three AFC playoff games, including the music city miracle, before losing the super bowl.

This should be ranked Gannon, then McNair, then Culpepper, and finally Green.

MVP Seasons and Near MVP Seasons

Gannon and McNair only had really one true MVP season each (which they both won), although both were in the running in the two years leading up to their MVP season. Trent Green did not win an MVP, but in both 2002 and 2004 could have easily taken the award. Same deal with Culpepper, no MVPs, but two seasons in which he was as deserving as the player who did win it, 2002 and 2004.

I'd rank this one Green, then Culpepper, then McNair, and finally Gannon

Conclusion

I really wanted to find some evidence that I could point to and say that "this number says that Steve McNair is a deserving hall of famer", but I've found that his career is pretty undistingulishable from the other top QBs of his era. His performances fit perfectly in with these other ring-less players who were the dominant quarterbacks at the turn of the decade.

Steve McNair will be remembered as one of the most dominant players right at the turn of the decade, but likely not as a deserving hall of famer, even if his tragedy inspires some extra 'yes' votes.

NFL Crystal Ball: McNair Legacy will not include Hall of Fame Induction - MVN Outsider